Thursday, February 02, 2006

Belarus

Before I came to Poland I knew very little about Belarus. In the time I've been here however, I've picked up quite a bit.

I've heard about Europe's last dictator Lukashenko and how he relies heavily on Russian support. I've read about his forceful way of governing, his fear of a Ukrainian style revolution, the human rights violations including restrictions on freedom of speech; and the recent struggles involving the Polish minority in Belarus.

Last week the opposition leader
Alexander Milinkevich was addressing the Polish parliament and this week he's been in Brussels. Whereas the Polish parliament is openly supporting his candidacy for President, and money is being channeled towards attempting to help the opposition win the upcoming elections, the European Parliament has to be more wary.

Individual MEPs have expressed concern about the current situation in Belarus but European institutions cannot be seen to be supporting individual candidates in national politics. Although Milinkevich met several very high profile European figures: Javier Solana, Benita Ferrero-Waldner and Josep Borrell as well as foreign ministers and NGO representatives, the visit was all kept rather quiet.

Common consensus seems to be that, despite the presence of OSCE election observers, the elections next month are at high risk of being unfair and that Lukashenko will retain his title of 'last European dictator.' What happens next, bearing in mind increased European pressure, the Ukrainian example, Polish intentions and Russian influence, should be interesting to see.

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